The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released the Energy Technology Outlook 2023, saying that the global energy sector is at the dawn of a "new industrial era led by clean energy technology". If countries can fully implement the emission reduction goals and climate commitments, by 2030, the overall value of the clean energy manufacturing industry will exceed three times the current level, while creating millions of jobs. The Director of IEA, Fatih Birol, stressed that "no country is an island of energy, and international cooperation is very important. If countries do not work together, energy transformation will become more expensive and the process will be slower."

The market value of "green manufacturing" will double

Energy security is a major driving force for the rapid development of the renewable energy industry. It is imperative to accelerate the deployment of relevant technologies and equipment manufacturing. Birol said: "The main driving force of clean energy investment is energy security. With the gradual increase of investment in clean energy, we will see that electric vehicles, solar energy, hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, etc. will slowly but surely replace fossil fuels."

IEA estimates that by 2030, the global market value of key mass production technologies, including solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicle batteries, heat pumps and electrolytic cell hydrogen production equipment, is expected to double to about 650 billion dollars per year. At the same time, the number of jobs related to clean energy manufacturing will more than double to nearly 14 million.

According to IEA statistics, although the global fossil fuels still account for 80% of the primary energy structure, in 2022, the global investment in clean energy will reach 1.4 trillion US dollars, up 10% year-on-year, accounting for 70% of the total investment growth in the energy sector.

At the same time, based on the expectation of achieving net zero emissions in 2050, IEA predicts that by 2030, the global production of electric vehicles will increase by six times, the proportion of renewable energy generation will increase from 30% to more than 60%, and the proportion of electricity demand in the total final consumption will increase from 20% to 30%.

With the strong growth of electric vehicle sales, the investment related to energy efficiency in the transportation sector is also increasing. IEA pointed out that in 2022, the energy efficiency related investment in the global transportation sector will reach US $220 billion, of which the investment in electrification will exceed US $90 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 67%. In addition, driven by more efficient vehicles such as hybrid electric vehicles, the investment in traditional energy efficiency by the transportation sector has also been strong, with an investment of 128 billion US dollars.

The number of global hydrogen patents has increased significantly

In addition, according to the latest patent research report on hydrogen technology jointly issued by the European Patent Office and IEA, hydrogen technology innovation is turning to low emission solutions such as electrolytic cells. As the innovation focus of hydrogen terminal applications, hydrogen patent applications in the automotive industry are also growing. In terms of hydrogen patent application, the EU and Japan are currently in the leading position, while China and South Korea are growing significantly.

It is reported that the above patent data covers all technologies from hydrogen supply to storage, distribution and conversion as well as terminal applications. From 2011 to 2020, hydrogen patent applications in the EU and Japan accounted for 28% and 24% of all patent applications in the same period, respectively. The leading country in Europe was Germany, accounting for 11% of the world, followed by France, accounting for 6%, and the Netherlands ranked third in Europe, accounting for 3%.

The proportion of hydrogen-related patents in the United States is 20%, but the overall trend is downward. Patents related to hydrogen technology in South Korea and China accounted for 7% and 4% respectively, showing a rapid upward trend, with an average annual growth rate of 12.2% and 15.2% respectively. Birol said: "Hydrogen can play an important role in the transformation of clean energy. For example, it can replace fossil fuels in industries with few clean alternatives such as long-distance transportation and fertilizer production."

The ranking of hydrogen technology patent applications shows that the European chemical industry has a high enthusiasm for technological innovation in the fields of electrolysis and fuel cells. From 2011 to 2020, more than half of the US $10 billion venture capital invested in hydrogen enterprises went to patented start-ups.

Diversification of "green supply chain" is important

IEA pointed out that the world should benefit from a more diversified supply chain of clean technologies. Up to now, the "green supply chain", including technology manufacturing and material manufacturing, is facing the problem of high concentration. In terms of technology manufacturing, more than 70% of the production capacity of large-scale technologies such as wind power, batteries, electrolytic cells, solar panels and heat pumps are occupied by the top three producers.

In terms of material manufacturing, the manufacturing of key minerals in the world also has a high geographical concentration. In terms of mining, the production of cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo accounts for more than 70% of the world's total, Australia, Chile and China jointly account for more than 90% of the world's lithium production, and Indonesia accounts for 40% of the nickel production.

Based on this, Birol urged to accelerate the diversification of the supply chain, emphasizing that excessive reliance on one trade source may lead to supply disruption.

The report of IEA pointed out that evaluating and cultivating local competitive advantages should be the core pillar for countries to formulate industrial strategies, and energy cost is the key to industrial competitiveness. In the future, when formulating industrial strategies, countries should mainly consider which links in the supply chain should be specialized domestically, which regions should establish strategic partnerships, or whether to invest directly in third countries.

However, there are still challenges to diversify the supply chain. On the one hand, the establishment of a new supply chain and the expansion of the existing supply chain need a long preparation time, and policy intervention is urgently needed; At the same time, some countries and regions may also suffer from labor shortage and skills shortage. On the other hand, the construction of clean energy infrastructure for transportation, transmission, distribution or storage may take 10 years or more, which will directly lead to the extension of the delivery period.